The global freight market is set for another dynamic year in 2025, with container and airfreight rates stabilizing, yet remaining well above pre-pandemic levels. Persistent global tensions, shifting shipping alliances, and evolving market conditions will continue to shape the landscape.
Container Rates: Stabilizing after mid-2024 spikes Container rates, which spiked mid-2024,
The year-to-date average for 2024 stands at $3,755 per 40ft container, which is $890 higher than the 10-year average of $2,865
Airfreight Rates: Resilience amid challenges Airfreight rates showed minor fluctuations throughout 2024 but ended the year at $2.61 per kilogram for shipments between 100 and 3,000kg. Experts note that while supply chain adaptations have mitigated the crisis's long-term impact on rates overall, certain regions and destinations have still experienced significantly higher tariffs.
Although the Red Sea crisis initially strained supply chains, its impact has largely plateaued as logistics providers adapted to extended ocean freight transit times. In 2025, airfreight demand is projected to grow by 4–5%
What to Expect in 2025: Opportunities and challenges The freight market faces both uncertainty and opportunity
Key market drivers for 2025:
New alliances: The implementation of new shipping alliances in 2025 may cause short-term disruptions as carriers adjust vessel rotations and schedules. However, these changes promise long-term benefits, including improved transit times and reliability.Increased capacity: Container vessel capacity is expected to grow by 7–8% in 2025, up from 3–4% in 2024, potentially easing supply constraints.US tariffs: The introduction of new tariffs could lead to proactive shipping activity, influencing global freight volumes.Geopolitical tensions: Continued tensions may lead to further disruptions in both ocean and airfreight markets, emphasizing the need for agile supply chain strategies.
Deep Dive: The evolving ocean alliances As we move into 2025, the landscape of ocean shipping alliances is undergoing significant transformations. The introduction of new collaborations and the restructuring of existing ones provide both challenges and opportunities for shippers and logistics providers.
Here’s a breakdown of the key alliances, their focus areas, and changes:
1. MSC (Independent)
Key Focus: Independent growth
Biggest Change: Leaving 2M Alliance
2. Gemini Cooperation (Maersk & Hapag-Lloyd)
Key Focus: Schedule reliability (goal of +90%)
Biggest Change: Hub-and-spoke model
3. Ocean Alliance (COSCO, CMA CGM, Evergreen, OOCL)
Key Focus: Transpacific, Asia-Europe routes
Biggest Change: 2032 contract extension
4. Premier Alliance (HMM, ONE, Yang Ming)
Key Focus: Asia-Europe capacity
Biggest Change: Slot exchange agreements
MSC (Mediterranean Shipping Company):
In February 2025, MSC will operate independently, concluding its partnership with Maersk under the 2M Alliance. While Maersk is shifting toward an end-to-end integrated logistics model, MSC will remain focused on direct port-to-port services with an expanded fleet.
Its standalone network will feature:
• 34 loops across key trade lanes, including Asia-Europe, Asia-North America, and Transatlantic routes.
• Access to over 1,900 direct port pairs, offering direct coverage and simplified logistics for shippers.
• Routing options via both the Suez Canal and the Cape of Good Hope, enhancing flexibility in service delivery.
MSC’s independent strategy positions it as a top choice for customers prioritizing direct port-to-port connections and expansive service coverage.
Gemini Cooperation (Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd):
This new collaboration aims to address one of the industry's longstanding pain points: schedule reliability. Key highlights include:
• A hub-and-spoke network model, minimizing direct port calls and optimizing transit times.
• A target of 90% schedule reliability, significantly above the industry average of ~50% in recent years.
• A fleet of 340 vessels and 57 interconnected services, designed to ensure efficiency and predictability.
Shippers seeking consistent and reliable transit times may find Gemini’s services particularly appealing, especially for time-sensitive cargo.
Ocean Alliance (CMA CGM, COSCO, Evergreen, OOCL):
Maintaining its structure, the Ocean Alliance continues to prioritize:
• Asia-North America and Transpacific trades, offering consistency and reliability in these key markets.
• A proven track record of dependable service, appealing to shippers who value stability in their logistics planning.
Premier Alliance (ONE, Yang Ming, HMM):
The Premier Alliance builds on its strong foundation by leveraging vessel-sharing agreements with MSC. Key offerings include:
• A strong focus on Asia-Europe and Asia-North America routes with end-to-end port container services.
• Enhanced service reliability through collaboration with MSC, ensuring comprehensive coverage across lucrative trade lanes.
This alliance remains a reliable option for customers seeking balanced network coverage and well-established services.
The shifts in ocean alliances will bring new long term opportunities while disruptions might occur during the startup phase as carriers are rotating vessels and changing their schedules.
• Improved reliability: Alliances like Gemini and Premier are focused on minimizing disruptions and enhancing schedule predictability.
• Broader coverage: MSC’s independent network and Ocean Alliance’s consistent offerings provide expansive options for diverse shipping needs.
• Strategic partnerships: Shippers may benefit from aligning with alliances that best match their operational priorities, such as cost-efficiency, transit time, or market access.
As these alliances take shape, businesses should stay informed and agile, leveraging the strengths of each network to navigate the evolving global freight landscape.
Conclusion: Navigating a complex landscape In 2025, the freight market will continue to be shaped by fluctuating rates, new alliances, and geopolitical uncertainties. While container rates have stabilized, they remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels, and airfreight demand is expected to grow amid ongoing challenges.
Staying informed and adaptable will be key for businesses navigating this evolving landscape. Leveraging new shipping alliances, monitoring market developments, and optimizing supply chain strategies will enable shippers to seize opportunities in a complex global environment.
Sources: Drewry World Container Index, Freightos, Maersk Insights, Xeneta, MDS Transmodal, Seatrade Maritime, and Reuters.
